Trump's tariff policy still stirs volatility in BTC
Mainstream data observations
BTC core liquidation levels:
Long positions: Liquidation price at $81,449 with a liquidation amount of $211 million;
Short positions: Liquidation price at $83,941 with a liquidation amount of $871 million. The current BTC’s price stands at $81,654, which shows a certain margin from the long position liquidation price of $81,449, keeping the risk relatively controllable. However, the liquidation intensity on the long side is high, posing a risk of cascading liquidations. Price levels at $81,500 and $80,750 can be considered key support points.
ETH core liquidation levels:
Long positions: Liquidation price at $1,624.5 with a liquidation amount of $126 million;
Short positions: Liquidation price at $1,584.6 with a liquidation amount of $250 million.
The current ETH price is $1,611.1. The short positions exhibit high and concentrated liquidation intensity, with the main liquidation point at $1,624.5 and a substantial liquidation amount, making it a support level worth watching. The liquidation intensity for long positions is evenly distributed and relatively controllable, but caution should still be exercised regarding the risk of cascading liquidations among longs.
Total stablecoin market cap: $233.712B
The total market cap has slightly declined. BUIDL has once again issued an additional 161.24 million tokens, increasing by 0.01% on Aptos, Avalanche, Polygon, Arbitrum, and Optimism, and by 1.66% on Ethereum, further advancing its progress.
BTC market cap share: 63.45%
TOTAL3 market cap: $740.35B
BTC’s market cap share has increased again by 15.83%, now exceeding 62%. TOTAL3’s market cap experienced a significant pullback and rebound last night due to broader market influences, and on April 10, it has slightly retraced and declined.
Current miner shutdown price: $53,318.18
52% of mining equipment is operating above its shutdown price. The shutdown price for mainstream mining equipment is around $66,000, which can be considered a key price level to observe. On April 9, BTC’s price retraced upward, approaching the shutdown price for some miners.
Bitcoin MVRV-Z score: 1.43
The MVRV ratio is the quotient of the minimum market value (current market cap) over the realized value (the aggregate value of all BTC at their last movement. After the price hit a low on April 9, the corresponding index level also retraced.
Bitcoin BVIV score: 55.44%
After reaching a high of 65.70% on April 9, the BVIV score experienced a significant drop, falling to 55.44% on April 10. Correspondingly, BTC's price hit a low on April 9 and is now at a moderate level, as the market retraced in response to tariff-related developments.
[Market rating]
After BTC’s price touched the recent bottom at 74,501 on April 9 and, influenced by external policies and other factors, the market began an upward trend with BTC’s price momentarily breaking through 82,000. $81,000 can now be regarded as a key support level to monitor. The primary influencing factors remain policy-related, and there is a lack of strong positive catalysts to drive prices significantly higher. The current market bull/bear sentiment score is 60 (cautiously bullish).
[Below 50: Bearish; 60–80: Neutral; Above 80: Bullish]
Market overview
BTC rebounded as high as around 83,600, successfully breaking through $82,000. This suggests that the rebound from the bottom around 74,500 may shift into a reversal, officially ending the downtrend from the peak of 109,998. Looking ahead, BTC will likely experience consolidation or a continued rebound, provided it does not fall below the midline of this rally, roughly around $80,000.
Macroeconomic overview
On April 9, Trump announced a 90‑day suspension of the newly effective tariffs on all countries, while maintaining a base tariff of 10%. Meanwhile, China's tariffs continued to climb to 125%. Subsequently, US stocks surged and BTC broke through $83,000. This short‑term tariff suspension indicates that Trump still primarily uses tariffs as a bargaining chip. However, China's hardline stance far exceeded Trump's expectations. In order to stabilize US stocks in the short term, Trump was forced to delay the tariff implementation and enter new negotiations with other countries before the tariffs take effect. As long as Trump's tariff policy remains unstable, global risk assets will continue to fluctuate under its influence, characterized by a significant increase in volatility and an unpredictable trend.
Key events
- According to Whale Alert monitoring, Tether has issued another $1 billion worth of USDT on the Tron network.
- According to CMC market data, the de-pegging of the Synthetix stablecoin sUSD has increased to 12% with a 24-hour drop of 3.19%.
- According to CNN, Donald Trump has increased US tariffs on China to 125%, effective immediately, and implemented a 90‑day tariff suspension for countries that don’t take retaliatory actions.
- Aave DAO, the decentralized autonomous organization that governs the Aave protocol, has passed a proposal regarding AAVE repurchase and distribution.
- The China Central Television (CCTV) Finance channel included a screenshot of the RFC official X account when reporting on Elon Musk-related news; RFC surged by over 50 percent in one hour before subsequently pulling back.
- According to Reuters, the European Union has voted to adopt counter measures by imposing a 25% tariff on the United States.
- Central trading and liquidity marketplace BulbaSwap has announced the BULBA tokenomics model, which features a total supply of 1 billion tokens with 80% allocated to airdrops and trading mining incentives.
- The DeSci project Bio Protocol has launched the open-source plug-in BioAgent, which is built on the elizaOS framework and can automatically read and reason about scientific literature.
- Babylon Genesis Chain, the first blockchain secured by Bitcoin staking, had gone live.
- According to CFTN, the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council has increased the additional tariff rate on all imported goods originating from the United States from 34% to 84%.
- US Florida federal court judge Federico Moreno has approved NBA star O'Neal paying 11 million dollars to settle an Astrals NFT-related lawsuit.
- DeFi project Flash.Trade in the Solana ecosystem will launch its token FAF on April 15.
- According to on-chain analyst @ai_9684xtpa, DWF Labs, a digital asset investment and trading firm, has subscribed 250 million WLFI at $0.1, with a total amount of $25 million.
Hot projects
Exchange updates
- Bybit has listed Babylon (BABY).
- Binance Futures has launched a new yield-bearing margin asset LDUSDT, enabling users can convert their USDT principal-protected earning product assets into LDUSDT with this new asset and use it as margin for U-based contracts.
- Cryptocurrency platform Kraken has partnered with Mastercard to issue crypto debit cards across the United Kingdom and Europe.
- OKX has listed PROMP (Wayfinder) spot trading.
- Bitget has launched on-chain trading with the Solana ecosystem's memecoins AGAWA, Steve, and Jockey and will upgrade its BGB burn rules to destroy approximately 30 million BGB in Q1 2025 to enhance compliance and transparency.
Industry landscape
- NFT platform Magic Eden has completed its acquisition of the decentralized trading platform Slingshot to promote its vision of creating a cross-chain asset trading platform.
- According to its official website, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission Acting Chairman Caroline D. Pham has announced that the commission would end the practice of regulating by prosecution that has targeted the digital asset industry.
- The Thai SEC has revised laws to strengthen the regulation of overseas crypto peer-to-peer trading platforms.
- According to Reuters, the US Senate has voted to confirm Paul Atkins as US SEC Chairman.
Emerging projects
Hyperliquid Smart Money tracking
- The long position profits of the bears have significantly reversed.
- Some individual addresses have switched to going long.
- New positions are shifting towards mainstream coins (like ETH) and strong altcoins.
Observations on April 10 indicate that most smart money positions have yet to show clear closing actions, with the overall strategy continuing the direction from April 9. However, floating profits on short positions have significantly diminished, with losses and reversals beginning to appear, signaling a shift in market sentiment.
Taking HYPE as the core observation target, while most addresses are still shorting, the overall floating profits have significantly decreased. For example, the major address 0xb3e4... still has an open short position on HYPE, but its floating profit has dropped from 131% yesterday to 105%, with a loss of 150,000 USDT, showing that the price rebound of HYPE is putting pressure on the short positions.
Meanwhile, address 0xe0cc... has shown a clear "short-to-long" behavior. Not only did it go long on HYPE, but it also continued to go long on Fartcoin. Although these two long positions are currently at a small loss, it indicates that the address is anticipating that the rebound trend will continue, which contrasts sharply with its more conservative stance in the past two days.
Additionally, some short positions, such as VIRTUAL and WLD, are still showing significant profits (over 250% and 800%), but ETH, USUAL, and other assets are seeing new long positions or losses, suggesting that some smart money is starting to go long on strong coins or expanding its operations to mainstream coins and rebound targets.
On the BTC long side, address 0xb3e4... continues to hold the position, with losses expanding from -120,000 yesterday to -37,000, although the loss has narrowed, the position has not been closed, suggesting a long-term strategy or waiting for a clearer direction.
Other opportunities
On-chain DeFi mining yield products:
Risk: The yield token is Sky, which may be subject to price fluctuations that could affect the yield. Users are advised to invest cautiously and conduct their own research.
Disclaimer
The development and market cap of stablecoins mentioned in the above content are speculative and based on market analysis at the time of writing and should not be interpreted as guaranteed outcomes. Market conditions can fluctuate widely and unpredictably due to numerous factors such as regulatory changes, market demand, and global economic developments.
The information provided in this article is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or professional advice of any kind. While we have made every effort to ensure that the information contained herein is accurate and up-to-date, we make no guarantees as to its completeness or accuracy. The content is based on information available during writing and may be subject to change.
Please note that this article includes references to third-party websites and data provided solely for convenience and informational purposes. We do not endorse or assume any responsibility for the content, accuracy, or reliability of any information, products, or services offered by third parties.
Cryptocurrencies involve significant risk and are NOT suitable for the majority of investors. The value of digital currencies can be extremely volatile, and you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite before participating in any staking or investment activities.
We strongly recommend that you seek independent advice from a qualified professional before making any investment or financial decisions related to cryptocurrencies. We shall in NO case be liable for any loss or damage arising directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on the information contained in this article.
