PYTH, MRS, VENOM set for $5.1B token unlock this week
Mainstream data observations
BTC core liquidation positions:
Long positions at $102,878 with a liquidation amount of $738 million.
Short positions at $107,634 with a liquidation amount of $2.228 billion.
The current BTC price is $103,328. Short-position liquidation intensity is high and concentrated near $107,000, where liquidation strength is significant.
ETH core liquidation positions:
Long positions at $2,378.2 with a liquidation amount of $69.19 million
Short positions at $2,456.6 with a liquidation amount of $545 million
The current Ethereum price is $2,387. Short-position liquidation intensity is high, and there is a large liquidation amount near $2,450, which can be monitored as a key price point.
Total stablecoin market cap: $244.01 billion
Total market cap saw a slight increase on May 19. USDT increased by $150 million, with a 0.20% rise on Tron. Recently, there has been frequent USDT issuance on Tron.
BTC market share: 64.02%
TOTAL 3 market cap: $872 billion
BTC market share rose again, and the total 3 market cap has returned to the level at the beginning of the month. Market confidence in BTC remains strong.
Current core miner shutdown price: $58,993
The current miner shutdown coin prices are all below the current BTC price, and the average shutdown price for mainstream mining rigs is $58,000, which can be used as a key price point to observe.
Bitcoin MVRV-Z score: 2.45
MVRV is the ratio of the minimum market value (current market cap) to realized value (the total value of all BTC at their last movement). As BTC price rises again, the MVRV-Z index is also in a relatively moderate overvaluation range.
Bitcoin BVIV score: 45.98
The BVIV score has fallen again and is at a low point for the past six months, indicating limited momentum for significant BTC price changes.
[Market rating]
On the morning of May 19, BTC quickly surged from around $103,000 to above $107,000 before pulling back, and is currently fluctuating near $103,000. The $103,000 level can be monitored as a key price point; if it breaks down, the market may see a large-scale decline. If it rises and breaks through $120,000, a broad rally in altcoins may occur. The current bull/bear sentiment score is 60 (neutral).
[0-40 Bearish; 40-50 Cautiously Bearish; 50-70 Neutral; 70-80 Cautiously Bullish; 80-100 Bullish]
Market overview
After consolidating over the weekend, BTC broke out and reached a high of around 107,100 before starting to decline. In this round of BTC’s rise, major coins didn’t follow the uptrend, and ETH experienced significant volatility. Many altcoins followed ETH’s movements, causing BTC’s market dominance to climb again to 64%. The market has been heavily drained of liquidity. Whether BTC has peaked or remains strong can be judged by the 104,500 and 103,200 levels. The 104,500 level marks a key reversal candle and a liquidity vacuum zone; a break below this level could accelerate the decline. The 103,200 level is the recent correction low and a psychological level for investors. If BTC revisits and breaks below this point, it may signal the end of the uptrend that started from 74,500. After this correction, BTC may continue to challenge 117,000.
Macro overview
At the close of the US stock market on May 16, Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating from the highest Aaa to Aa1. In early trading on May 19, US stocks opened down 1%, and US stock futures, US Treasury futures, and the US dollar index all weakened simultaneously. Notably, the 30-year US Treasury yield has approached the 5% mark, the highest since mid-2007. Recently, Trump’s large-scale tax reform plan was rejected within the Republican Party. The Congressional Budget Office analyzed that if the plan were passed, it would increase federal debt by $4.5 trillion over ten years. The potential increase in debt is pushing US Treasury yields higher, which in turn further raises mortgage and credit card interest rates, threatening to weaken the real economy. Declining confidence in the US dollar is forcing investors to reassess the core position of US assets in their portfolios. From 2013 to February 2025, China reduced its holdings of US Treasuries by about $532.4 billion, a decrease of approximately 40.4%. The market is currently betting on a rate cut in either July or September.
Key events
- Cross-chain aggregation DeFi platform Infinex announced that 20% of its Yaprun pool will be allocated to Kaito AI ecosystem Hodlers, including Genesis Non-Fungible Token holders and KAITO stakers.
- This week, tokens including PYTH, MRS, and VENOM will see significant unlock, with a total value of $5110.8 million.
- Cryptocurrency platform Kraken has mentioned $KRAK in a post, possibly hinting that its stock ticker will be KRAK.
- According to the monitoring of on-chain analyst Yu Jin, several traders on Hyperliquid have opened large leveraged positions, with one whale opening a 40x long position on 3,788.7 BTC.
- Elon Musk has replied to a tweet mentioning a memecoin called APU, which led to a price increase for the token.
- USC Federal Judge Analisa Torres has rejected the previous settlement proposal between Ripple and the SEC on the grounds of jurisdiction and procedural issues.
- According to data from the on-chain tracking tool Lookonchain, Trump's family project World Liberty Financial (WLFI) has spent a total of 6 million USDT to purchase EOS and an A token.
- US SEC has released an FAQ on crypto asset activities, covering broker-dealer and ETP rules.
Hot projects
Exchange updates
- WOO X has launched Aegis YUSD (YUSD) trading.
- Binance Wallet has announced the participation threshold for Alaya AI (AGT) TGE, requiring 186 Alpha points, while Binance has launched CVC/USDT perpetual contracts with up to 75x leverage, and Binance Alpha has listed SuiNS Token, MIRAI, REX, and AGT (with a current market cap of $70 million), as well as launched a SUI ecosystem trading competition on the Alpha platform with a total prize pool of $1.7 million.
- Bitget CEO Gracy Chen has tweeted that Bitget is an early investor in the L2 project Morph, holding 20% of Morph’s shares but not participating in its daily operations, while Bitget on-chain trading has launched LAUNCH, BULL, AGT, FARTSIGHT, and buidl, and Bitget has released its April transparency report showing that contract trading volume increased by 17.3% month over month to $757.6 billion.
Industry landscape
- TRON is a Gold Sponsor of the ETH Beijing Hackathon 2025, co-hosted by the PKU Blockchain DAO (Peking University Blockchain Association) and WTF Academy, to deepen collaboration between the Ethereum and TRON ecosystems.
- UK Crypto Firm Coinsilium Group has raised £1.25 million to establish a Bitcoin-focused financial plan.
Emerging projects
Hyperliquid Smart Money tracking
Positions have broadly deteriorated and market momentum has declined significantly.Most accounts show a continuous drop in ROE, indicating consolidation or pullback with no clear upward trend.
Short positions have not seen significant reductions, but losses are widening, especially in BTC and HYPE, with no signs of stop-loss, increasing risk exposure.
Long positions have increased in assets like SOL and ETH, but this has led to negative ROE, suggesting failed attempts to buy the dip.
Memecoins and new tokens such as Launchcoin are in a retracement phase and have lost growth momentum.
Summary:
The market may remain cautious, with participants possibly reducing positions and watching for major shifts in capital.
The market may avoid increasing exposure to highly volatile memecoins and major tokens, as risks are difficult to manage.
It is worth monitoring for signs of short covering or position closing in BTC and PEPE, as these may indicate a potential market reversal.
In the short term, the market may focus on oversold rebounds or maintaining high-ROE positions, such as WLD and ZK.
Other opportunities
On-chain DeFi mining yield products:
Risk: Be aware of the value anchoring risk of stablecoins. Users should invest cautiously and conduct their own research.
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