BTC continues to outperform US stocks
Mainstream data observations
BTC core liquidation positions:
Long position: Liquidation price at $83,169 with a liquidation amount of $569 million.
Short position: Liquidation price at $85,985 with a liquidation amount of $938 million.
The current BTC price is $83,819. The liquidation amount for long positions is larger and more concentrated, with strong liquidation pressure at $83,169 and $82,905. The risk for short positions is relatively controllable, and $83,000 can be observed as a short-term support level.
ETH core liquidation positions:
Long position: Liquidation price at $1,564.9 with a liquidation amount of $138 million.
Short position: Liquidation price at $1,602.3 with a liquidation amount of $121 million.
The current ETH price is $1,578. Short liquidation intensity is large and concentrated, mainly around the $1,600 level. The liquidation amount is substantial and can be observed as a support level. The liquidation risk for long positions is relatively controllable.
Total stablecoin market cap: $234.31B
The total market capitalization has slightly increased. USDT has issued an additional 0.33% on Tron, bringing the total USDT on Tron to $68.02B.
BTC market cap share: 63.95%
TOTAL3 market cap: $751.55B
BTC's market share has increased again, now approaching 64%.
The total market cap of TOTAL3 has slightly risen, but the increase is small, indicating that the market remains cautious toward altcoins.
Current core miner shutdown price: $60,575
35% of miners are currently above the shutdown price, with the average shutdown price of mainstream mining machines at $68,597. This is an important price level to monitor.
Bitcoin MVRV-Z score: 1.74
MVRV is the ratio between the minimum market value (current market value) and the actual value (the total value of all BTC when last moved). The MVRV-Z score has slightly decreased due to Powell’s speech.
Bitcoin BVIV score: 52.37
The BVIV score has decreased from 53.35 on April 16 to 52.37. BTC's performance remains resilient, and the impact of the US stock market on BTC has diminished.
Market rating
On April 17, due to Powell’s statement that the Fed would not be influenced by political pressure to save the market, the three major US stock indices experienced significant declines. BTC is currently oscillating around $84,000, with the ability to break through depending on tariff policies and interest rate cuts. There is a clear support price level at the current position. The market predicts an 86.5% chance that the Fed will maintain interest rates in May. The current bull/bear sentiment score is 65 (Neutral).
[0-40 Bearish; 40-50 Cautiously Bearish; 50-70 Neutral; 70-80 Cautiously Bullish; 80-100 Bullish]
Market overview
BTC's performance has been significantly stronger than the US stock market. On April 16, it reached a new high above 85,400 but was pulled down by the US stock market. In the short term, BTC has not broken below 83,700. For BTC to break through 86,000, external factors such as favorable tariff policies, a stable rebound in the US stock market, or interest rate cuts may be needed. Overall, BTC has been testing the breakout point recently, but multiple attempts have failed. Moving forward, attention should be on whether the support level at 83,700 will hold. If it does not break, the potential for a breakout increases.
Macro overview
Recently, Nvidia announced a $500 billion investment in the US to ensure that its H20 chips for export to China are not affected. However, Donald Trump directly imposed restrictions on H20 exports to China on April 16, leading Nvidia to book a $5.5 billion charge, with an estimated potential revenue loss of $10 billion. Nvidia’s stock opened lower and fell further, dragging down the entire US tech sector and contributing to BTC’s decline.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell issued a strong warning about the impact of Trump’s tariff policy early this morning. Powell stated that the uncertainty of the tariff policy's potential effects is rising, and it is expected that "inflation will rise, and economic growth will slow," which will put the Federal Reserve in a dilemma. Regarding the Fed's potential intervention, Powell indicated that the market's expectation for the Fed to step in and calm volatility may be wrong, and market volatility could persist for some time. This hawkish statement quickly spread to the US stock market, causing the three major indices to continue their decline, with the Nasdaq falling over 4% at one point and the Dow dropping more than 1,000 points. In the short term, the probability of the market expecting the Fed to cut interest rates to rescue the market has sharply decreased. Major investment banks have raised their gold price expectations. From BTC’s performance, it appears that some funds continue to accumulate BTC, leading to BTC’s stronger performance compared to the US stock market.
Key events
- According to Reuters, Osman Kabaloev, the deputy head of the Russian Finance Ministry's financial policy department has stated that Russia should develop its own stablecoins pegged to other currencies after the stablecoin USDT held by digital wallets associated with Russia was frozen last month.
- Terence Kwok, the founder of the blockchain identity verification platform Humanity, has stated that the Token Generation Event (TGE) for its token, H, is about to launch.
- Solana DEX Raydium has launched the token issuance platform LaunchLab, with 25% of fees allocated for RAY buybacks.
- Liquidity infrastructure Orderly has introduced OmniVault, a solution that lets regular DeFi customers turn become liquidity providers.
Hot projects
Exchange updates
- Binance's second round of delisting voting has ended, with FTX Token (FTT), the native token of the now-bankrupt FTX exchange, receiving the highest vote share, although Binance stated that the voting result is not the only factor in making the delisting decision. Meanwhile, Binance also launched AERGO/USDT perpetual contracts with up to 15x leverage and INIT/USDT perpetual contracts with up to 5x leverage.
- Bitget has opened deposits for the PoolX project AB with an APR range of 109.99%–435.77%, launched the industry's first on-chain rebate program allowing partners to earn up to 40% on-chain trading rebates, introduced memecoins GROKCOIN, drwaify, Fur, HRT, and JOVIAL from the Solana ecosystem for on-chain trading, and listed the Launchpool project GOMBLE (GM), enabling users to stake BGB to earn 15 million GM tokens.
- Bybit has launched STO/USDT and FHE/USDT perpetual contracts with up to 20x leverage, along with VeThor (VTHO).
- BNB has completed its 31st quarterly token burn, worth approximately $916 million.
- OKX Wallet is listed in Apple App Stores in certain regions.
Industry landscape
- According to crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett, the US SEC will hold its third crypto policy roundtable on April 25, focusing on crypto custody issues.
- Crypto investment startup Glider has raised a $4 million funding round, led by a16z.
- According to The Block, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has stated that future regulations related to banks and cryptocurrencies may be "relaxed."
- DeFi protocol Neutrl has completed a $5 million seed funding round, led by STIX and Accomplice.
- Social finance app Hana has raised a $6 million funding round, led by YZi Labs and Hyperliquid.
- Bitcoin mining rig maker Auratine has completed a $153 million Series C funding round, led by StepStone Group.
- Resolv Labs, a delta-neutral stablecoin protocol, has raised $10 million in seed funding round, led by Cyber.Fund and Maven11.
- Mayer Mizrachi, the mayor of Panama City, Panama, has announced that the Panama City Council voted in favor of accepting cryptocurrency payments, initially supporting BTC, ETH, USDC, and USDT.
Emerging projects
Hyperliquid Smart Money tracking
After tracking the position changes of multiple smart money addresses on April 17, it was observed that short positions continue to dominate the overall market layout, and most assets still maintain stable unrealized profits. However, the reward rate for short positions has not significantly expanded, indicating that the market has entered a consolidation phase.
HYPE short positions remain the main focus, with the address 0xb3e4... holding the largest position (137,133 tokens), with an unrealized profit of approximately 740,000 USDT (ROE 76.76%), unchanged from yesterday, indicating that this address has chosen to remain cautious without adding or reducing positions. Other addresses, such as 0xccf1... (41,379 tokens) and 0x3c65... (33,853.92 tokens), also remain unchanged, with only minor price fluctuations causing unrealized profit and loss variations.
Other short positions like PURR, BNB, MNT, USUAL, VIRTUAL, and WLD are still in profit, with reward rates ranging from 35% to 820%. Among them, the short position in WLD has maintained an unrealized profit of over 800% for several consecutive days, but no new positions have been added, indicating it may be a long-term position.
It is worth noting that address 0xe0cc... added a new short position today: FARTCOIN short (500,000 tokens), which has currently made an unrealized profit of 30,000 USDT, suggesting that this address is re-entering the market after a period of silence, possibly testing short-term trend predictions.
On the long position side, performance has been mixed. The ETH and BTC long positions held by 0xb3e4... remain in unrealized loss, indicating that major funds are still cautious about mainstream coins. Meanwhile, the small ETH long position held by 0xf467... remains in unrealized profit.
Other opportunities
On-chain DeFi mining yield products:
Risk: Users should invest cautiously and conduct their own research.Disclaimer
The development and market cap of stablecoins mentioned in the above content are speculative and based on market analysis at the time of writing and should not be interpreted as guaranteed outcomes. Market conditions can fluctuate widely and unpredictably due to numerous factors such as regulatory changes, market demand, and global economic developments.
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