BTC continues to attract strong buy-side demand

Mainstream data observations

BTC core liquidation positions:

Long positions at $105,765 with a liquidation amount of $618 million.

Short positions at $108,096 with a liquidation amount of $1.324 billion

The current BTC price: $106,852. The short-position liquidation intensity is high and concentrated near $108,000, where significant liquidation strength is present.

ETH core liquidation positions:

Long positions at $2,476.8 with a liquidation amount of $500 million.

Short positions at $2,562.3 with a liquidation amount of $250 million

The current Ethereum price: $2,538.8; The short-position liquidation intensity is high, with significant liquidation amounts near $2,560, which can be monitored as a key price point.

Total stablecoin market cap: $244.288 billion

Total market cap saw a slight increase today. USD1, issued by the Trump family project WLFI, has increased by 0.59%, bringing the total market cap to $1.225 billion.

BTC market share: 64.00%

TOTAL 3 market cap: $889.46 billion

BTC market share has returned to 64%, currently fluctuating around this level. The TOTAL3 market cap has seen a slight increase, with the exchange rate between Ethereum and Bitcoin rising in recent days.

Current core miner shutdown price: $60,227

The current miner shutdown coin prices are below the current BTC price. The average shutdown price for mainstream mining rigs is $60,000, which can be observed as a key price point.

Bitcoin MVRV-Z Score: 2.54

MVRV is the ratio of the minimum market value (current market cap) to realized value (the total value of all BTC at their last movement). Bitcoin is priced above its realized value, but it has not yet reached the historically overheated zone, indicating there may still be room for upward movement, though caution is needed.

Bitcoin BVIV score: 48.75

The BVIV score slightly increased today but remains at a moderate-to-low level, indicating relatively stable market sentiment, with no major volatility expected in the short term.

[Market rating]

BTC briefly dropped below the key $104,000 level last night, but the lowest point remained above $104,000. On the morning of May 21, it surged to $107,095, with Bitcoin spot ETF inflows reaching $329 million in a single day, showing a clear trend of capital inflows. However, the increase in contract open interest could lead to higher volatility in the market, so risk management should be considered. The current bull/bear sentiment score is 90 (Bullish).

[0-40 Bearish; 40-50 Cautiously Bearish; 50-70 Neutral; 70-80 Cautiously Bullish; 80-100 Bullish]

Market overview

BTC continues to see high buy volumes, with ETF inflows of $667 million in a single day. It has re-entered the range of 106,000-109,000. On-chain addresses holding over 100 BTC have continued to increase their holdings for nearly five days, with an average daily purchase of 1,236 BTC. The continuous on-chain buying and increased institutional demand have led to sustained inflows into BTC, with contract open interest on exchanges rising rapidly, totaling over $74.5 billion. Since May 19, liquidations have been relatively low, suggesting that the likelihood of a market shift is growing. BTC's current market share is 64.07%, with a slight overall decline.

Macro overview

The 30-year Japanese government bond yield has surged to over 3.1%. As one of the largest holders of US Treasuries, Japan’s bond yield increase may reduce Japanese investors' demand for US debt. This capital outflow from Japan could decrease demand for the US dollar, leading to a weakening of the dollar in the short term, especially against the backdrop of recent US credit rating downgrades and growing trade war concerns. US 30-year Treasury yields have surged to 4.995%, and 10-year Treasury yields have risen to 4.5%. Gold has fluctuated back to $3,300 per ounce, and the US dollar index has fallen to around 99.2. The rise in US Treasury yields will limit the scope for rate cuts, with the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September increasing to 51%. The likelihood of a rate cut in September and two rate cuts in 2025 has increased.

Key events

• US SEC announced that it would postpone its decision on the three ETF proposals from 21Shares Core XRP Trust, Grayscale XRP Trust, and Grayscale Dogecoin Trust. Additionally, its Chairman, Paul Atkins, stated that he will prioritize enhancing transparency and accountability in the SEC's regulation of digital assets.
• According to Jinse Finance, Elon Musk has stated that there is no conflict of interest between the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and his business.
• Prediction market platform Kalshi Inc. has announced that it has hired Donald Trump Jr. as a strategic advisor and is working with Elon Musk's artificial intelligence company xAI. 
• Listed company DeFi Technologies has partnered with stablecoin infrastructure provider Fire Labs to launch a stablecoin and enter the RWA sector.
• According to Forbes, commission-free brokerage firm Robinhood has submitted a proposal to the US SEC to create the Real World Asset Exchange (RRE), a trading platform that offers off-chain trade matching and on-chain settlement for improved efficiency and transparency.
• Stablecoin issuer Circle and global asset manager BlackRock have signed a new Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), in which BlackRock commits to not developing competitive payment stablecoins in collaboration with Circle.
• According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net inflow of $667 million, marking the fourth consecutive day of net inflow. 
• According to data from DefiLlama, USDe's supply increased by $300 million in the past week, with the current total supply at $4.98 billion.

Hot projects

Token		Description	Market Cap（$)
	DIP Hot meme	The core concept is "Buy The Dips," which means buying assets when their prices experience a short-term decline ("dip"), based on the expectation that the price will rebound or continue to rise in the long term. Currently holding over 6,400 tokens.	5.6 million
	LABUBU Hot meme	Labubu is a fictional sprite character created by Hong Kong artist Kasing Lung in 2015, part of his children's book series The Monsters. In 2019, Kasing Lung collaborated with Pop Mart to transform Labubu from a book character into collectible plush toys, keychains, and vinyl figures, further boosting its global popularity.	8.6 million
	KNET AI concept	Kingnet AI is positioned as a no-code, AI-driven game development platform. By leveraging AI technology, it lowers the barrier for game development, allowing users to create Web3 games using natural language (instead of code), significantly reducing development costs.	16.1 million

Exchange updates

• Binance has announced that users who claimed XTER received an additional airdrop of 157 XTER tokens, while it will also airdrop 1,000 MERL tokens to users with 193 or more Alpha points, and Binance Alpha has launched TOKYO GAMES TOKEN (TGT). Additionally, according to Dune data, Binance Wallet saw a trading volume of $5 billion on May 20, with over 93,600 monthly active traders.
• Bitget has launched SOON (SOON) spot trading and AGT/USDT perpetual contracts with up to 20x leverage, while Bitget Onchain has launched Nani Coin (NANI) and Kiwi (KIWI).
• Bybit has launched SAROS/USDT perpetual contracts with up to 12.5x leverage.

Industry landscape

• Bitcoin liquidity staking protocol Rover has completed a $4.1 million seed funding round, participated in by Bloccelerate.
• Solana cryptocurrency trading app True Markets has completed a $11 million funding round, participated in by PayPal Ventures.
• Fintech company Slash has completed a $41 million Series B funding round, led by Goodwater Capital.
• Circle co-founder’s new company Catena Labs has completed an $18 million seed funding round, led by a16z Crypto.

Emerging projects

Token	NOBODY	dab	PLAI
Description	Centered around the narrative "Anybody Can Be a Nobody," it builds a grassroots identity culture, enhancing meme propagation through the humorous contrast of sausage elements. The concept of decentralization and community inclusivity is conveyed through anti-hero symbols.	It primarily operates on Web 2 social tools such as X, YouTube, etc., connects with wallets, and allows users to send meme coins or messages to others. It is incubated by buidl dao.	As the token for the PlayMind protocol, $PLAI powers the AI agent ecosystem, where players can generate data through games, train smart AI agents, and deploy them into their favorite games.
Price	$0.05387	$0.002210	$0.003273
Market Cap（$)	53.87 million	2.21 million	3.27 million
Token Holders	5,816	788	968

Token	Cycle	PCULE	MVP
Description	The deflationary economic model is built around an automatic token burn mechanism, strengthened by on-chain burn tools and a community voting system, reinforcing the core concept of "eternal burning," combined with AI assistants to add a technological narrative element.	Polycule is a streamlined Telegram trading bot designed to simplify trading on the Polymarket prediction market platform. Users can trade binary outcomes (yes/no) of political events, sports events, cryptocurrencies, and various other markets with simple commands.	The core narrative of the MVP token is based on the pun "Most Viewed Pasta" (MVP), combining food memes and sports honor abbreviations for cross-border humor. The community also discusses celebrity-driven hype and dumping, forming a foundation for satire and entertainment-based meme propagation.
Price	$0.008084	$0.006878	$0.02005
Market Cap（$)	8.08 million	6.87 million	20.05 million
Token Holders	5,920	3,982	2,536

Hyperliquid smart money tracking

The short account (e.g., 0xf4…d1d) continues to incur losses but has not closed positions or reversed to long, indicating that the bearish side is in a wait-and-see, defensive mode, with no clear exit yet.

Long positions are taking profits: While BTC and PEPE positions have increased, their ROE has decreased, suggesting a sign of “scaling down during the rise.”

Memecoin divergence intensifies: PEPE remains stable, but TURBO and Launchcoin perform poorly, indicating a clear concentration of market funds.

The capital allocation strategy has shifted toward defense and rotation, with no significant offensive signals.

Summary:

The market could continue to track BTC/PEPE for any signs of scaling down after a potential rebound and observe if funds are leaving.

If short positions show a consecutive rebound (e.g., HYPE/ENA), they could be considered for reversal, but it’s not wise to position in advance.

The market will potentially selectively participate in memecoins, avoidiing weaker ones like TURBO and Launchcoin, and focus on observing PEPE's endurance.

If long positions show consecutive increases in ROE and position size over two days, the market would consider the potential start of a new bullish phase.

Address	Trading pair	Token quantity	Unrealized PnL	Last seven days PnL&Unrealized profit and loss
0xf4…d1d	HYPE	-3,992.59	-16,182.75 (-55.11%)	33,933/ 156,008
	VIRTUAL	-41,460	-38,217.04 (-469.57%)
	WLD	-60,000.6	165,927.99 (715.83%)
	USUAL	-149,972.7	4,157.74 (90.59%)
	ZK	-180,000	13,936.68 (269.66%)
	XRP	-5,000	-909 (-168.61%)
	ENA	-30,000	-413.89 (-30.99%)
	BTC	-0.1128	-2,026.68 (-811.2%)
0xc7…5bc	SOL	+3,146.5	17,788.22 (35.97%)	-2,549/ 2,746
	ENA	+483,543	-625.75 (-3.48%)
0x50…db6	BTC	+7,764.26	11,394,519.68 (55.89%)	5,976,829/ 22,388,861
	PEPE	+2,257,618,435	11,083,547.34 (595.9%)
0x32…812	SOL	+8,677.82	461,192.87 (186.06%)	-372,871/ 224,873
	TURBO	+89,792,772	-67,939.77 (-61.83%)
	Launchcoin	+6,608,713	-196,164.15 (-32.21%)

Other opportunities

On-chain DeFi mining yield products:

Project Name	Pendle（Blockchian：Ethereum） ←→ Token：wstUSR
Project Details	wstUSR: USR is a yield-bearing synthetic dollar issued by Resolv, and wstUSR is the staked version of USR.
Participation Method	Through Pendle’s Zap-in feature, wstUSR can be injected or deposited, with no impact upon withdrawal.
Project Information	Pendle: A yield protocol built on the Ethereum blockchain that allows users to earn yield by locking up assets. Resolv: A Delta-neutral stablecoin protocol focused on market-neutral portfolios in the market.
Earnings Details	Token: wstUSR Annualized return: 9.51% (Subject to change; base yield and PT yield will scale proportionally according to the underlying assets in the pool and the PT)
Product Data	Token: wstUSR Product participation deadline: September 25, 2025 Total token deposits: $73.95M Liquidity: $41.65M
Notes	Staking USR on Resolv yields an APR of 8.01%, but the exchange rate for converting USR to wstUSR may fluctuate.

Risk: Users should exercise caution when investing and conduct their own research.

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