BTC leads rally as memecoins diverge

Mainstream data observations

BTC core liquidation positions:

Long position at $95,065 with a liquidation amount of $2.465 billion.

Short position at $99,817 with a liquidation amount of $240 millionThe current BTC price: $99,287. The long position liquidation intensity is relatively strong and concentrated, with $95,000 acting as a potential price support level. The short position risk is relatively controllable.

ETH core liquidation positions:

Long position at $1,825.9 with a liquidation amount of $653 million;Short position at $1,902.7 with a liquidation amount of $96.14 million.

The current Ethereum price: $1,902.6. The long position liquidation intensity is high, with large liquidation amounts around $1,860. The short position risk is relatively controllable, with liquidation intensity more dispersed.

Total stablecoin market cap: $242.21B

The total market cap has seen a slight decrease on May 8. USDT has issued an additional 75.11M tokens, with a 1.47% increase on TRON. Additionally, USD1, issued by the Trump family project WLFI, has increased by 2.7M, while USDC has decreased by 37.47M, with a 2.91% decrease on Solana.

BTC market cap share: 65.35%

TOTAL 3 market cap: $803.38B

BTC market cap share rose again on May 8, reaching a recent high before slightly retreating. The rise in BTC also led to a $1.351 billion increase in the TOTAL 3 market cap. BTC's market cap share is currently at a high level, with BTC price increasing significantly. The focus should now shift to other mainstream coins. The BTC to ETH exchange rate has decreased by 2.85% in the last 24 hours.

Current core miner shutdown price: $69,799

The current miner shutdown price is below the current BTC price. The average shutdown price for mainstream mining machines is currently $60,000, which can be observed as a key price level.

Bitcoin MVRV-Z score: 2.14

The MVRV is the ratio between the minimum market value (current market cap) and the realized value (total value of all BTC when last moved). The index is slightly fluctuating within a relatively high neutral range.

Bitcoin BVIV score: 46.97

The BVIV score decreased again on May 8, and the index remains at a low level, indicating less momentum for BTC to experience significant volatility.

[Market rating]

On the morning of May 8, BTC rose to a high of 98,731. The focus is on whether it can continue to rise and break through key price points. US Federal Reserve has maintained the interest rate unchanged for the third time, which aligns with market expectations. Going forward, attention can be given to mainstream tokens that have not experienced a widespread increase, such as ETH. The current bull/bear sentiment score is 90 (Bullish).

[0-40 Bearish; 40-50 Cautiously Bearish; 50-70 Neutral; 70-80 Cautiously Bullish; 80-100 Bullish]

Market overview

BTC continues to maintain strong momentum, with its high reaching around 98,800. There is a high probability it will rise above 99,300. Breaking 99,300 would mean that the previous full decline range, from 110,000 down to 74,500, was part of the last market correction, with 74,500 being the bottom of the last adjustment. Therefore, as long as BTC doesn’t fall below the daily MA140 (currently at 92,249), it suggests that the upward momentum will continue. If it falls below that level, a pullback is expected. Assuming the high point of this round is 99,300, the expected pullback target from the 74,500 low would be around 84,000. Currently, BTC’s market dominance is 65.36%, and after reaching a new high, it has slightly retreated.

Macro overview

US Federal Reserve has kept the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.5% for three consecutive meetings. Jerome Powell emphasized that the current economy allows the Fed to remain patient and observe. The probability of a rate cut in June has decreased. The overall tone is cautious, leaning towards a hawkish stance but with a dovish bias, as they continue to track core data such as inflation and unemployment rates and adjust the timing of rate cuts based on these data changes. This aligns with market expectations. The S&P 500 initially dipped but eventually closed up by 0.43%. On the tariff front, Donald Trump announced a trade agreement framework with the UK, launching a series of agreements that helped push BTC to new highs. Currently, tariffs are entering a favorable negotiation period, and any progress or easing on tariffs will further drive up US stocks and BTC.

Key events

• Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that a major trade agreement will be announced at 10 PM (UTC+8) on May 8.
• According to the OKX market, BTC had broken through $98,000 with a daily increase of 1.11%.
• According to Bloomberg, Robinhood Markets is developing a blockchain-based platform that will allow retail investors in Europe to trade US securities such as stocks.
• Stablecoin issuer Tether has minted another $1 billion USDT on the Tron network.
• According to CBS News, US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Secretary of Commerce Rootnik have submitted a plan for a US sovereign wealth fund to Donald Trump, which will follow the Saudi and Norwegian models to generate public revenue through investments in natural resource assets.
• Web3 bank Vaulta (formerly EOS) has announced on X that EOS tokens will become A tokens on May 14, with an exchange ratio of 1:1.
• According to Jinshi.com, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has stated that digital assets may create a $2 trillion demand for US Treasuries in the coming years.
• DeFi protocol Resolv has announced its RESOLV tokenomics, stating that 10% of the airdrop will occur in the first quarter, with TGE registration opening later in May.
• According to data from Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas, BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has attracted a net $6.96 billion in inflows since the start of 2025, surpassing the inflows of the world’s largest gold fund in the same year.
• According to Bloomberg, Eric Trump, the second son of Donald Trump, has stated that he and Donald Trump hold a lot of Bitcoin, predicting exponential growth for it in the coming years.
• According to @sns on X, the Solana Name Service (SNS) has launched its Genesis Airdrop, distributing 2 billion $SNS tokens, which represent 20% of the total supply.
• Elon Musk and Y Combinator founder Garry Tan changed their profile pictures to iconic Pit Vipers sunglasses, supporting the "Mog/Acc" identity, which combines "mogging" (internet slang for becoming stronger and faster) and "accelerationism," and driving up the price of MOG tokens.
• Binance has listed Polyhedra Network (ZKJ) and announced that all users with 142 or more Alpha points will receive an airdrop of 50 ZKJ tokens, while users with points between 64 and 141 and a UID ending in two will receive a lucky airdrop of 50 ZKJ.
• Japanese listed company Metaplanet has increased its Bitcoin holdings by 555 BTC.
• According to PANews, US Democratic Senator Chris Murphy has introduced the Modern Earnings and Misconduct Enforcement Act (MEME Act), proposing a ban on the issuance of memecoins by the President and members of Congress.

Hot projects

Token		Description	Market Cap（$)
	OT Platform token	OpTrade is an on-chain trading platform with a CEX-style UI/UX. OT is the platform's utility token. By staking OT, users can enjoy benefits such as lower transaction fees, early access to new features, VIP trading routes, and compound benefits. Currently, there are 5,900 token holders.	11.8 million
	BABIFY Popular meme	The BABIFY brand is themed around a lively and cute baby image, creating unique visual symbols by "baby-ifying" famous people (such as celebrities or influencers). This "cute" element has a strong appeal in the memecoin market, generating quick discussions and viral spreading on social media.	1.1 million
	mog/acc Popular meme	"MOG/ACC" is a combination of "mogging" and "accelerationism," forming a unique internet-born philosophy that emphasizes achieving personal and collective excellence through competition, victory, and rapid technological advancement. This philosophy is not just a meme but also seeks to reshape tech culture through visual symbols and community participation.	1.5 million
	PITCOIN Popular meme	PITCOIN's core narrative claims to be "the oldest coin on the internet." It attracts users through retro memes and a tribute to early internet culture. This narrative combines the nostalgic sentiment of old-school memecoins with the hype of new-generation memecoins, similar to the rise of early Dogecoin.	3 million

Exchange updates

• Binance will launch a new Alpha Points consumption system on May 13, delist the ANIME/BNB, STRK/BTC, and THE/BTC spot trading pairs on May 9, and airdrop 165 OBOL tokens to qualified users holding at least 153 Alpha points. Additionally, Binance Alpha has added Obol Network (OBOL) and Polyhedra (ZKJ), while both Binance Alpha and Binance Futures will list Doodles (DOOD) on May 9. Binance Wallet has also launched a BNB Smart Chain trading competition on Binance Alpha, offering $3.5 million in rewards.

Industry landscape

• US Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs has signed House Bill 2749, establishing the state's first crypto reserve.
• David Bailey, who previously advised Trump on crypto policy, is planning to establish a Bitcoin investment firm with plans to raise $300 million.
• Middle Eastern digital asset company Fuze has completed a $12.2 million Series A funding round, led by Galaxy and e&Capital.

Emerging projects

Token	crypto	BIOS	Bert
Description	Through straightforward slogans and philosophical expressions, the ultimate narrative of "cryptocurrency replacing cash" is constructed, building a religious-like community belief with fanatic enthusiasm. The core contradiction lies in using the simplest token names to carry the grandest financial revolution narrative, creating a cognitive contrast.	BasisOS is the first AI-driven agent managing DeFi protocols, capable of automatically executing fundamental trading strategies on Hyperliquid to generate real-world profits.	Based on artistic IP licensing, the internet meme dog character, through the Woofhub pet tool ecosystem, completes the transition from a viral emoji to a Web3 practical scenario, shaping the "Solana Mayor" community governance cultural image.
Price	$0.001120	$0.01187	$0.01764
Market Cap（$)	1.12 million	11.87 million	17.64 million
Token Holders	672	6,855	22,873

Token	SKYAI	gorilla	AIOT
Description	SKYAI uses a full-scenario AI ecosystem as its narrative shell, generating market heat through high-return presales (66x) and large-scale exchange listings. In reality, it relies on community-driven hype and the trading team's market manipulation, creating a meme-driven effect. The core contradiction lies in the "BNX team manipulation" background and the sniper-driven pre-sale rush, leading to market capitalization management dilemmas.	An "Ape" culture narrative is constructed to build community cohesion, symbolizing retail investors' unity against capital using the gorilla figure. The core message conveys grassroots consensus values through humorous trader depictions and the slogan "unity is strength."	A decentralized environmental monitoring network is constructed through portable hardware devices, combining AIoT technology with environmental protection narratives, motivating users to contribute data and earn token rewards. The core aim is to create a community-driven ecosystem where "environmental data equals value," imitating the Helium DePIN model but focusing on the environmental sector.
Price	$0.04374	$0.005661	$0.4161
Market Cap（$)	43.74 million	5.66 million	12.4 million
Token Holders	48,435	4,320	25,892

Hyperliquid Smart Money tracking

BTC leads the bulls to a broad rally, with memecoins showing internal differentiation, and short positions still low in liquidity.Mainstream coins (BTC) enter an ROE acceleration phase: The BTC ROE of 0x50…db6 and 0xc7…5bc both rose to around 150% on May 7, with a significant increase in the seven-day PnL, indicating that capital is concentrated in driving the market up.

Strong memecoins remain strong, with TRUMP and PEPE ROE rising again, but FARTCOIN shows a drop in rewards, suggesting that some funds are starting to withdraw, and a rotation within the sector is occurring.

0xf4…d1d has not changed its short position, but the overall ROE has slightly decreased, and newly added BTC short positions are immediately losing, indicating an error in the bearish judgment, and the risk is increasing.

0x32…812’s SOL ROE continues to rise, maintaining a high-concentration strategy in a single asset, with stable results.

The current trend suggests strength in both mainstream coins and memecoins, with particular attention on notable memecoins like PEPE and TRUMP. Observing whether funds start shifting toward new themes could offer valuable insights into the next moves.

Short positions are facing higher failure rates, making it difficult for bearish plays to gain traction, particularly against trends like BTC. A more cautious approach may be prudent in such conditions.

Monitoring BTC long positions and the performance of memecoins will be key, as any reduction in BTC long positions or shifts in memecoin returns could signal a potential market reversal.

Address	Trading pair	Token quantity	Unrealized PnL	Last seven days PnL&Unrealized profit and loss
0xf4…d1d	HYPE	-3,992.59	4,411.03 (15.02%)	23,697/ 221,615
	VIRTUAL	-41,460	-16,317.87 (-200.5%)
	WLD	-60,000.6	174,881.28 (754.46%)
	USUAL	-149,972.7	5,591.48 (121.82%)
	BTC	-0.1128	-1,101.6 (-440.93%)
0xc7…5bc	BTC	+17.1995	152,263.6 (148.23%)	52,804/ 153,295
0x50…db6	BTC	+886.1985	3,814,472.64 (182.59%)	-2,262,066/ 10,556,076
	PEPE	+4,755,058,655	3,501,089.11 (96.09%)
	FARTCOIN	+11,696,825	1,271,070.32 (58.2%)
	TRUMP	+1,264,054	1,950,167.89 (159.92%)
0x32…812	SOL	+17,563.5	623,261.28 (124.24%)	2,497/ 623,963

Other opportunities

On-chain DeFi mining yield products:

Project Name	Cetus（Blockchain：Sui） ←→ Token：SUI | USDC
Participation Method	From the Cetus official website, go to Earn, connect a wallet that supports Sui, and deposit SUI | USDC to participate in supply
Project Information	Cetus: A DEX and concentrated liquidity protocol based on Move, focused on Aptos and Sui.
Earnings Details	Tokens: SUI | USDC (Composition: SUI 35.67% | USDC 64.33%) APR: 131.76% (returns are subject to change) Yield tokens: SUI (2,172 tokens daily) + CETUS (30,000 tokens daily)
Product Data	Tokens: SUI | USDC Total token deposits: 27.44M Liquidity: 25.79M 24h trading volume: 33.03M Minimum slippage: 0.1%

Risk: The price fluctuations of yield tokens (especially CETUS) may affect returns. Users are advised to invest with caution and conduct their own research.

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